Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 4.128853 4.851454 5.651377 6.600899 7.695532 8.916090 10.378380
2025-08-31 2.904503 3.839786 4.989016 6.497356 8.416380 10.767079 13.854407
2025-09-07 2.287160 3.337155 4.743871 6.748024 9.508148 13.150402 18.290137
2025-09-14 1.810583 2.879435 4.422726 6.781224 10.254009 15.130022 22.430564
2025-09-21 1.470864 2.526096 4.154157 6.799905 10.928045 17.040903 26.665678
2025-09-28 1.217498 2.243036 3.923314 6.808860 11.549213 18.905510 31.009188
2025-10-05 1.128631 2.208196 4.069844 7.419293 13.164174 22.433181 38.247691
2025-10-12 0.995905 2.066580 4.007077 7.658919 14.186517 25.115593 44.413641
2025-10-19 0.886430 1.944446 3.953657 7.896552 15.218840 27.902775 51.013394
2025-10-26 0.770435 1.785196 3.802602 7.926527 15.873460 30.097474 56.804355
2025-11-02 0.645553 1.581434 3.530117 7.680020 15.977061 31.316991 60.984276
2025-11-09 0.529618 1.372353 3.210427 7.287718 15.742195 31.879673 64.006929
2025-11-16 0.452875 1.239453 3.033880 7.173595 16.061761 33.548928 69.330397
2025-11-23 0.390873 1.128958 2.888483 7.105584 16.469992 35.438794 75.283520
2025-11-30 0.360215 1.091335 2.903244 7.393732 17.662401 38.995460 84.833914
2025-12-07 0.319288 1.016908 2.817034 7.435485 18.320686 41.527523 92.558600
2025-12-14 0.282967 0.946755 2.728779 7.457805 18.935032 44.023161 100.431752
2025-12-21 0.250985 0.881568 2.641497 7.468252 19.520436 46.508833 108.502551
2025-12-28 0.249258 0.908596 2.803904 8.133027 21.727404 52.725077 125.076460
2026-01-04 0.231500 0.880639 2.810739 8.393885 22.986273 56.947289 137.657865
2026-01-11 0.215265 0.853901 2.816490 8.652461 24.268450 61.336031 150.970903
2026-01-18 0.193631 0.803273 2.743739 8.685082 24.982054 64.476495 161.730981
2026-01-25 0.166355 0.725109 2.573567 8.416893 24.883006 65.693679 168.180542